Edge Validation

forward-test av kandidater · 0 kr live-kapital (medvetet) · 2026-09-05 02:45 UTC · uppdateras var 5:e min
Kandidater under bevisning

Settlement-longBinance · long T−90 → T−30

—
-0.48%per kluster
fills / kluster395 / 86
maker-variantväntar på fills
backtest+1,05%/kluster NETTO @0,27% (t=5,9)
86 av 50 kluster till GO/KILL · —

Polymarket pump-fadeNO efter ≥10pp-rörelse · 24h

n=86
-1.6%klustersnitt
armklustersnittWR
alla86-1.6%42%
krypto18+5.4%61%
övrigt68-3.4%37%
signaler / stängda134 / 114
backtest+10.7% ROI snitt, WR 68% (dag-t 5.7)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2+2.1%
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?+2.4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?+11.1%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?+0.0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (+16.1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?+5.8%
korrelerade marknader räknas som en observation · kryptoarmen handlas ej

Kraken Futures pump-fadeshort 12h efter ≥+20% på 8h

n=17
-0.53%netto/trade
signaler / stängda18 / 17
median / WR+0.42% / 59%
bokkostn.1k / 5k / 25k / 100k  →  0.43% / 0.52% / 1.21% / 2.67%
backtest+3,34%/trade netto, dag-t 5,25 (400 dagar)
ARBUSD-3.51%
ACEUSD+0.34%
TUSD-6.42%
MUBARAKUSD+5.24%
EGLDUSD+7.62%
kill: <+1%/trade netto efter 40 signaldagar · gamla +10%/dygn: 12 sig / 6 stängda / -5.99%
Spaning — var nästa edge föds

Genesis-vakten5 sensorer · 06:30 + tracker 06:45

2026-09-04
nya PM-taggarCanadian Championship [1h], Ontario By-Elections [9h]
nya Kalshi-serier22 st, varav 18 med marknader: KXMEETINGS, KXMOREDISTREF, KXMDQUESTION3, KXJUSTI
ny rewards-familj[ATERKOMMANDE] Will OpenAI's Astra model ($474/d) | Will Brett Whiteley win the
ytor under uppföljning270
facit-loop: p0-poster / utfall1461 / 895 · bias +4.6pp · Brier 0.160
ytor med tvåsidig bok:
will openai's astra mode: 53 handelsbara av 105 (spread 0.013, dag 2)
Quebec Elections: 51 handelsbara av 658 (spread 0.08, dag 3)
will étienne grandmont w: 51 handelsbara av 658 (spread 0.08, dag 3)
Lacy & Marlon: 50 handelsbara av 56 (spread 0.0255, dag 2)
lacy and marlon beat gam: 50 handelsbara av 56 (spread 0.0255, dag 2)

A/B: 48h vs 12h fadeflyttades jämvikten?

dom i okt
48h (utmanare)+0.9% · 8 trades
12h (konsensus)-15.9% · 89 trades
tesen: konsensus-boten flyttade jämvikten från 12h till 48h
Arkiv & infrastruktur

Likviditetsrewardsmaker-quoting, statisk

stoppad
6.2%/dagbrutto reward
marknader / timmar150 / 14
fyllskugga (1h-mtm)-6.23% av $135k fyllt
Adverse selection översteg rewarden i alla fem quote-avstånd. Återupptas endast med realtids-MM.

Övriga skuggor

in-play underdog (passiv)64/65 · traff 17% vs 18%
funding-extrem (short)n=109, -0.20%
nya listningarn=1
LLM-domar788
likvidationskartan17860
carry-datalagerfärsk (6 min)

Edge Radar

6 förslag väntar
källorbinance ✓ · bybit ✓ · cboe ✓ · edgar ✓ · genesis ✓ · hyperliquid ✓ · okx ✓
samlar data0 hypoteser
LLM-kostnad denna månad$1.17
New listing: TEAMUSDT TradFi Perpetual Contract, with up to 25x leveraradar-bybit-e/new-listing-teamusdt-tradfi-perp
New listing: MDBUSDT TradFi Perpetual Contract, with up to 25x leveragradar-bybit-le/new-listing-mdbusdt-tradfi-perp
NYA KALSHI-SERIER: 22 st, varav 18 med marknader: KXMEETINGS, KXMOREDIradar-genesis-9ae3dd025ecd4293
Binance Futures Will Launch Multiple USDⓈ-Margined TradFi Perpetual Coradar-binance-89a035c3ee0e4b7782bf0089323d8e78
New listing: CPUSDT Perpetual Contract in Innovation Zone, with up to radar-bybit-ing-cpusdt-perpetual-contract-in-i
New listing: DGAIUSDT Perpetual Contract in Innovation Zone, with up tradar-bybit-g-dgaiusdt-perpetual-contract-in-i
09-04T19:30binanceotherBinance Alpha Will Remove MTP, BDXN, TALE, BOS, MAIGA, TIMI, SAROS, U (Union), SERAPH, RVV
09-04T19:30binanceproductBinance Will List MarsCoin (MARSCOIN) with Seed Tag Applied
09-04T19:30binancerulesBinance Will Add MarsCoin (MARSCOIN) on Earn, Buy Crypto, Convert, VIP Loan & Margin
09-04T19:30bybitotherMENA Monthly Draw: Deposit & trade to share 1 BTC this September
09-04T19:30bybitrulesExplore 5 new assets for Margin Trading, Easy Earn, and Institutional Loans
09-04T19:30bybitrulesNew listing: DGAIUSDT Perpetual Contract in Innovation Zone, with up to 20x leverage
09-04T19:30bybitotherJoin xStocks Puzzle Hunt and win a share of 100,000 USDT
09-04T19:30bybitrulesNew listing: CPUSDT Perpetual Contract in Innovation Zone, with up to 20x leverage
radar 07:30/19:30 · mekanismagent 07:50/19:50 · collect :40 · godkänn: research/approve.py

Insamlare

watchdog 10 min
shadow_logger
carry_logger
gex_logger
llm_news_judge
hl_liq_indexer
pm_shadow
kf20_shadow
pm_underdog_shadow
fomo_fade48_bot
nattvakt 06:00 · genesis 06:30 · tracker 06:45 · vädersvansar 12:00
Trappan: backtest → skugglogg med riktiga priser och noll kapital → litet kapital först när forward-data bekräftar. Kill-kriterier skrivs i förväg. Full metodik och alla verdikt i research/hypotheses.jsonl.